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Excelsior vs FC Utrecht Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:15

Excelsior

PPG 0.93 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FC Utrecht

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-110.8%0-210.3%0-36.5%0-4+4.8%1 1-05.5%1-110.4%1-29.9%1-36.3%1-4+4.6%2 2-02.6%2-15.0%2-24.8%2-33.0%2-4+2.2%3 3-00.8%3-11.6%3-21.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.4% 32.8% 3.05 -22.5%

Draw 26.8% 28.2% 3.55 -4.9%

Away win 47.8% 45.9% 2.18 +4.2%

Over 2.5 59.0% 55.6% 1.80 +6.2%

Over 3.5 32.3% 33.3% 3.00 -3.1%

BTTS 57.8% 61.7% 1.62 -6.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 2.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob57.8%

A 48% / xG 1.0-1.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 0–2 10.3%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Excelsior1.0

FC Utrecht1.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

EXCELSIOR · PPG 0.93

FC UTRECHT · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.93), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Excelsior (H) 25.4%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -22.5%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -4.9%

FC Utrecht (A) 47.8%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV +4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Excelsior face FC Utrecht in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Excelsior a 25% chance, the draw 27% and FC Utrecht 48%, so FC Utrecht are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Excelsior and 1.9 for FC Utrecht (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Excelsior are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 1.13 for FC Utrecht. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.2%. This match finished 5-0.

Excelsior vs FC Utrecht Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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