Excelsior vs FC Utrecht Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Netherlands - Eredivisie Regular Season - 31 Stadion Woudestein· Rotterdam Sunday, April 26, 2026 10:15

Excelsior PPG 0.93

5-0 MISS

FC Utrecht PPG 1.13

Over2.5· +6.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Excelsior face FC Utrecht in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Excelsior a 25% chance, the draw 27% and FC Utrecht 48%, so FC Utrecht are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Excelsior and 1.9 for FC Utrecht (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Excelsior are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 1.13 for FC Utrecht. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.2%. This match finished 5-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 25.4%

Odds: 3.05 EV: -22.5%

Draw 26.8%

Odds: 3.55 EV: -4.9%

Away 47.8%

Odds: 2.18 EV: +4.2%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: 1.80 +6.2%

Over 3.5 32.3% Odds: 3.00 -3.1%

BTTS 57.8% Odds: 1.62 -6.4%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-2 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Excelsior

0.96

FC Utrecht

1.90

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +6.2% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.93), Away AVERAGE (1.13)