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Guimaraes vs Rio Ave Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 19:30

Guimaraes

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Rio Ave

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLD

// Model verdict

Home 55% chance

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+17.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-15.0%0-22.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.5%1-110.0%1-24.7%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.9%3-16.6%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-15.2%4+-22.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.6% 52.6% 1.90 +17.0%

Draw 21.1% 28.2% 3.55 -25.1%

Away win 17.3% 26.3% 3.80 -34.3%

Over 2.5 56.3% 54.6% 1.83 +3.0%

Over 3.5 33.9% 32.3% 3.10 +5.1%

BTTS 52.9% 58.8% 1.70 -10.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 62% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 10.5%

#2 2–0✓ 10.5%

#3 1–1 10.0%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 3–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guimaraes2.0

Rio Ave0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GUIMARAES · PPG 1.67

RIO AVE · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Guimaraes (H) 61.6%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +17.0%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -25.1%

Rio Ave (A) 17.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -34.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guimaraes face Rio Ave in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guimaraes a 62% chance, the draw 21% and Rio Ave 17%, so Guimaraes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Guimaraes and 0.9 for Rio Ave (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guimaraes are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.33 for Rio Ave. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Guimaraes vs Rio Ave Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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