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Bahrain SC vs Al Ahli M. Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Matchday 18 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 14:25

Bahrain SC

PPG 0.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Al Ahli M.

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLD

// Model verdict

Away 69% chance

Model probability 74.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a clear edge.

+11.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-19.5%0-211.8%0-39.7%0-4+10.9%1 1-03.0%1-17.4%1-29.2%1-37.6%1-4+8.5%2 2-01.2%2-12.9%2-23.6%2-33.0%2-4+3.3%3 3-00.3%3-10.8%3-20.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 9.8% 17.4% 5.75 -43.6%

Draw 15.8% 25.6% 3.90 -38.4%

Away win 74.5% 66.7% 1.50 +11.8%

Over 2.5 63.3% 52.6% 1.90 +20.3%

Over 3.5 41.1% 30.8% 3.25 +33.6%

BTTS 49.8% 51.3% 1.95 -2.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 32.1%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob49.8%

A 74% / xG 0.8-2.5 / O2.5 63% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.8%

#2 0–3 9.7%

#3 0–1 9.5%

#4 1–2✓ 9.2%

#5 1–3 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bahrain SC0.8

Al Ahli M.2.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BAHRAIN SC · PPG 0.75

AL AHLI M. · PPG 1.25

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

69%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.75) vs Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Bahrain SC (H) 9.8%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -43.6%

Draw 15.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -38.4%

Al Ahli M. (A) 74.5%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV +11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bahrain SC face Al Ahli M. in Bahrain - Premier League on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bahrain SC a 10% chance, the draw 16% and Al Ahli M. 75%, so Al Ahli M. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Bahrain SC and 2.5 for Al Ahli M. (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bahrain SC are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.25 for Al Ahli M.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Bahrain SC vs Al Ahli M. Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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