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FC Twente vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 19:00

FC Twente

PPG 1.87 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

NEC Nijmegen

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-13.9%0-23.1%0-31.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-05.1%1-18.2%1-26.6%1-33.5%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.4%2-18.7%2-27.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.8%3-16.1%3-24.9%3-32.6%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-15.3%4+-24.3%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 58.1% 1.72 -14.5%

Draw 20.9% 23.8% 4.20 -12.2%

Away win 29.4% 25.3% 3.95 +16.1%

Over 2.5 71.9% 70.4% 1.42 +2.1%

Over 3.5 51.2% 47.6% 2.10 +7.5%

BTTS 70.4% 70.4% 1.42 -0.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 2.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob70.4%

H 50% / xG 2.1-1.6 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 1–1✓ 8.2%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Twente2.1

NEC Nijmegen1.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.9% · O3.5 PROB 51.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FC TWENTE · PPG 1.87

NEC NIJMEGEN · PPG 1.73

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.87), Away GOOD (1.73)

Win probability 1X2

FC Twente (H) 49.7%

ODDS 1.72 · IMPLIED 58.1% EV -14.5%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -12.2%

NEC Nijmegen (A) 29.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +16.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Twente face NEC Nijmegen in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Twente a 50% chance, the draw 21% and NEC Nijmegen 29%, so FC Twente are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for FC Twente and 1.6 for NEC Nijmegen (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Twente are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.73 for NEC Nijmegen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.1%. This match finished 1-1.

FC Twente vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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