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Switzerland - Super League logo Switzerland flag Switzerland - Super League Championship Group - 34 Stockhorn Arena· Thun Saturday, April 25, 2026 18:30
Thun logo Thun PPG 2.24
0-1 MISS
Lugano logo Lugano PPG 1.41
Home· +10.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
66% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 58.0%
Odds: 1.90 EV: +10.2%
Draw 21.8%
Odds: 3.85 EV: -16.1%
Away 20.2%
Odds: 3.55 EV: -28.3%
Model lean: Home
Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 57.7% Odds: 1.50 -13.5%
Over 3.5 35.3% Odds: 2.25 -20.6%
BTTS 55.9% Odds: 1.45 -18.9%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 2-1 ✘
3rd 1-0 ✘
4th 2-0 ✘
5th 3-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Thun
1.94
Lugano
1.06

Model Suggestion

Home +10.2% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%
O2.5/Under 68%
BTTS/No 58%
Score Hit 26%
ROI 9.3%
Bet Hit 67% (9 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
66%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.24) vs P(Home)=58.0%

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