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Thun vs Lugano Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Championship Group · Matchday 34 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 18:30

Thun

PPG 2.24 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLD

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Lugano

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDW

// Model verdict

Home 54% chance

Model probability 58.0% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+10.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-15.3%0-22.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.7%1-110.2%1-25.4%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.1%3-16.4%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-14.9%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.0% 52.6% 1.90 +10.2%

Draw 21.8% 26.0% 3.85 -16.1%

Away win 20.2% 28.2% 3.55 -28.3%

Over 2.5 57.7% 66.7% 1.50 -13.5%

Over 3.5 35.3% 44.4% 2.25 -20.6%

BTTS 55.9% 69.0% 1.45 -18.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 58% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 1–0 9.7%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Thun1.9

Lugano1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.7% · O3.5 PROB 35.3%

Form & verdict PPG

THUN · PPG 2.24

LUGANO · PPG 1.41

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

54%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.24) vs P(Home)=58.0%

Win probability 1X2

Thun (H) 58.0%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +10.2%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -16.1%

Lugano (A) 20.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -28.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Thun face Lugano in Switzerland - Super League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Thun a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Lugano 20%, so Thun are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Thun and 1.1 for Lugano (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Thun are averaging 2.24 points per game versus 1.41 for Lugano. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Thun vs Lugano Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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