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Stal Mielec vs Slask Wroclaw Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 17:30

Stal Mielec

PPG 1.07 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Slask Wroclaw

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-14.0%0-24.5%0-33.4%0-4+3.4%1 1-03.1%1-17.0%1-28.0%1-36.1%1-4+5.9%2 2-02.7%2-16.2%2-27.1%2-35.4%2-4+5.3%3 3-01.6%3-13.7%3-24.2%3-33.2%3-4+3.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.4%4+-22.8%4+-32.1%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.3% 34.5% 2.90 -12.1%

Draw 20.0% 30.8% 3.25 -35.0%

Away win 49.7% 46.5% 2.15 +6.9%

Over 2.5 76.9% — — —

Over 3.5 57.7% — — —

BTTS 74.5% 65.4% 1.53 +14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob74.5%

A 50% / xG 1.8-2.3 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 74%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.0%

#2 2–2 7.1%

#3 1–1 7.0%

#4 2–1 6.2%

#5 1–3 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stal Mielec1.8

Slask Wroclaw2.3

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.9% · O3.5 PROB 57.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STAL MIELEC · PPG 1.07

SLASK WROCLAW · PPG 1.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.07), Away AVERAGE (1.21)

Win probability 1X2

Stal Mielec (H) 30.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.1%

Draw 20.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -35.0%

Slask Wroclaw (A) 49.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stal Mielec face Slask Wroclaw in Poland - I Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stal Mielec a 30% chance, the draw 20% and Slask Wroclaw 50%, so Slask Wroclaw are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Stal Mielec and 2.3 for Slask Wroclaw (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 75% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stal Mielec are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.21 for Slask Wroclaw. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +14.0%. This match finished 2-3.

Stal Mielec vs Slask Wroclaw Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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