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Polonia Warszaw vs Chrobry Glogow Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 17:30

Polonia Warszaw

PPG 1.29 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Chrobry Glogow

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-111.3%0-27.6%0-33.4%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.5%1-112.8%1-28.6%1-33.9%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.4%2-17.3%2-24.9%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.0%3-12.7%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.5% 54.6% 1.83 -42.4%

Draw 26.9% 30.3% 3.30 -11.2%

Away win 41.6% 26.3% 3.80 +58.1%

Over 2.5 45.2% — — —

Over 3.5 23.9% — — —

BTTS 50.2% 59.9% 1.67 -16.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 17%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob50.2%

A 42% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 45% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–1 11.3%

#3 1–0✓ 9.5%

#4 1–2 8.6%

#5 0–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Polonia Warszaw1.1

Chrobry Glogow1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.2% · O3.5 PROB 23.9%

Form & verdict PPG

POLONIA WARSZAW · PPG 1.29

CHROBRY GLOGOW · PPG 1.71

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.29) vs Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

Polonia Warszaw (H) 31.5%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -42.4%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.2%

Chrobry Glogow (A) 41.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +58.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Polonia Warszaw face Chrobry Glogow in Poland - I Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Polonia Warszaw a 32% chance, the draw 27% and Chrobry Glogow 42%, so Chrobry Glogow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Polonia Warszaw and 1.3 for Chrobry Glogow (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Polonia Warszaw are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.71 for Chrobry Glogow. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +58.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Polonia Warszaw vs Chrobry Glogow Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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