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Benfica vs Moreirense Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 17:00

Benfica

PPG 2.33 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Moreirense

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 86.6% vs bookmaker-implied 88.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-11.6%0-20.3%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.9%1-14.6%1-21.0%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.5%2-16.5%2-21.4%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.6%3-16.2%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-020.7%4+-18.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 86.6% 88.5% 1.13 -2.1%

Draw 10.0% 13.3% 7.50 -25.0%

Away win 3.4% 5.4% 18.50 -37.1%

Over 2.5 63.2% 70.4% 1.42 -10.3%

Over 3.5 41.0% 47.6% 2.10 -13.9%

BTTS 32.4% 43.5% 2.30 -25.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -23.2%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 75%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob32.4%

H 87% / xG 2.8-0.4 / O2.5 63% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.5%

#2 3–0 14.6%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 4–0 10.4%

#5 2–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Benfica2.8

Moreirense0.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.2% · O3.5 PROB 41.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BENFICA · PPG 2.33

MOREIRENSE · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.33), Away AVERAGE (1.07) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Benfica (H) 86.6%

ODDS 1.13 · IMPLIED 88.5% EV -2.1%

Draw 10.0%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV -25.0%

Moreirense (A) 3.4%

ODDS 18.50 · IMPLIED 5.4% EV -37.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Benfica face Moreirense in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Benfica a 87% chance, the draw 10% and Moreirense 3%, so Benfica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Benfica and 0.4 for Moreirense (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Benfica are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.07 for Moreirense. This match finished 4-1.

Benfica vs Moreirense Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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