← Back to picks 
Portugal - Primeira Liga Saturday, April 25, 2026 17:00 
Benfica PPG 2.33 
Moreirense PPG 1.07
Portugal - Primeira Liga Saturday, April 25, 2026 17:00 Benfica PPG 2.334-1 MISS
Moreirense PPG 1.07Home· -2.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
66% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 63.2% Odds: 1.42 -10.3%
Over 3.5 41.0% Odds: 2.10 -13.9%
BTTS 32.4% Odds: 2.30 -25.5%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 2-0 ✘
2nd 3-0 ✘
3rd 1-0 ✘
4th 4-0 ✘
5th 2-1 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Benfica 2.83
Moreirense 0.42
Model Suggestion
Home -2.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -2.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 47 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 47%
O2.5/Under 57%
BTTS/No 47%
Score Hit 49%
ROI -4.3%
Bet Hit 50% (18 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
STRONG_HOME 66%
Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.33), Away AVERAGE (1.07) - Strong consensus