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Heerenveen vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 16:45

Heerenveen

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Fortuna Sittard

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 71% chance

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a clear edge.

+16.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.3%0-21.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-04.1%1-16.2%1-24.6%1-32.3%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.5%2-18.2%2-26.2%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.9%3-17.3%3-25.5%3-32.8%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-19.4%4+-27.0%4+-33.5%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.5% 66.7% 1.50 -6.3%

Draw 17.5% 22.5% 4.45 -22.1%

Away win 20.0% 17.9% 5.60 +12.0%

Over 2.5 78.7% 67.6% 1.48 +16.5%

Over 3.5 60.0% 45.5% 2.20 +32.0%

BTTS 72.4% 64.5% 1.55 +12.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob72.4%

H 62% / xG 2.7-1.5 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 72%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 8.2%

#2 3–1 7.3%

#3 2–2 6.2%

#4 1–1 6.2%

#5 3–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heerenveen2.7

Fortuna Sittard1.5

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.7% · O3.5 PROB 60.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HEERENVEEN · PPG 1.73

FORTUNA SITTARD · PPG 0.93

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

71%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Heerenveen (H) 62.5%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -6.3%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV -22.1%

Fortuna Sittard (A) 20.0%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Heerenveen face Fortuna Sittard in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heerenveen a 63% chance, the draw 18% and Fortuna Sittard 20%, so Heerenveen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Heerenveen and 1.5 for Fortuna Sittard (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heerenveen are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.93 for Fortuna Sittard. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +32.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Heerenveen vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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