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Grasshopper vs Luzern Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Relegation Group · Matchday 34 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 16:00

Grasshopper

PPG 0.88 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Luzern

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 67% chance

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 76.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a clear edge.

+19.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-14.4%0-25.3%0-34.2%0-4+4.4%1 1-02.9%1-17.1%1-28.4%1-36.7%1-4+7.1%2 2-02.4%2-15.6%2-26.8%2-35.4%2-4+5.7%3 3-01.3%3-13.0%3-23.6%3-32.9%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.7%4+-22.1%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.3% 35.1% 2.85 -27.9%

Draw 19.3% 27.0% 3.70 -28.6%

Away win 55.3% 44.4% 2.25 +24.4%

Over 2.5 76.1% 63.7% 1.57 +19.5%

Over 3.5 56.6% 41.7% 2.40 +35.8%

BTTS 72.5% 67.6% 1.48 +7.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob72.5%

A 55% / xG 1.6-2.4 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 72%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2✓ 8.4%

#2 1–1 7.1%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 1–3 6.7%

#5 2–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grasshopper1.6

Luzern2.4

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.1% · O3.5 PROB 56.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GRASSHOPPER · PPG 0.88

LUZERN · PPG 1.38

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

Chance this pick lands

67%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.88) vs Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Grasshopper (H) 25.3%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -27.9%

Draw 19.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -28.6%

Luzern (A) 55.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +24.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grasshopper face Luzern in Switzerland - Super League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grasshopper a 25% chance, the draw 19% and Luzern 55%, so Luzern are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Grasshopper and 2.4 for Luzern (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grasshopper are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.38 for Luzern. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Grasshopper vs Luzern Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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