Today / Slovakia - Super Liga / Z. Michalovce vs Podbrezova

Z. Michalovce vs Podbrezova Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Championship Group - 7 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 16:00

Z. Michalovce

PPG 1.43 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Podbrezova

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.2% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a clear edge.

+10.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-14.7%0-24.4%0-32.7%0-4+1.9%1 1-04.6%1-18.5%1-27.9%1-34.9%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.2%2-17.8%2-27.2%2-34.5%2-4+3.2%3 3-02.5%3-14.7%3-24.4%3-32.7%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-13.2%4+-23.0%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.3% 32.3% 3.10 +18.7%

Draw 21.6% 26.0% 3.85 -16.8%

Away win 40.1% 50.8% 1.97 -21.0%

Over 2.5 71.2% 64.5% 1.55 +10.4%

Over 3.5 50.3% 41.7% 2.40 +20.7%

BTTS 70.8% 67.6% 1.48 +4.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -7.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob70.8%

A 40% / xG 1.8-1.9 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 71%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 1–2✓ 7.9%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 1–3 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Z. Michalovce1.8

Podbrezova1.9

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.2% · O3.5 PROB 50.3%

Form & verdict PPG

Z. MICHALOVCE · PPG 1.43

PODBREZOVA · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.43) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Z. Michalovce (H) 38.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +18.7%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -16.8%

Podbrezova (A) 40.1%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -21.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Z. Michalovce face Podbrezova in Slovakia - Super Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Z. Michalovce a 38% chance, the draw 22% and Podbrezova 40%, so Podbrezova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Z. Michalovce and 1.9 for Podbrezova (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Z. Michalovce are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.00 for Podbrezova. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Z. Michalovce vs Podbrezova Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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