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Portugal - Primeira Liga
Regular Season - 31
Estádio João Cardoso· Tondela
Saturday, April 25, 2026
14:30
Tondela
PPG 0.67
0-2
HIT CS5
Nacional
PPG 0.73
Away· +9.2%
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
42% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
25.6%
Odds: 2.84
EV: -27.3%
Draw
28.9%
Odds: 3.30
EV: -4.6%
Away
45.5%
Odds: 2.40
EV: +9.2%
Result: Away ✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
35.8%
Odds: 1.90
-32.0%
Over 3.5
16.7%
Odds: 3.25
-45.7%
BTTS
41.6%
Odds: 1.67
-30.5%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔
BTTS NO → NO ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st
0-1
✘
2nd
1-1
✘
3rd
0-0
✘
4th
1-0
✘
5th
0-2
✔
Expected Goals (xG)
Tondela
0.87
Nacional
1.26
Model Suggestion
No Bet
NO VALUE BET
Model lean:
No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.
League Track Record
↗
Based on 47 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc
47%
O2.5/Under
57%
BTTS/No
47%
Score Hit
49%
ROI
-4.3%
Bet Hit
50%
(18 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
42%
BALANCED
Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.67), Away POOR (0.73)