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Portugal - Primeira Liga logo Portugal flag Portugal - Primeira Liga Regular Season - 31 Estádio João Cardoso· Tondela Saturday, April 25, 2026 14:30
Tondela logo Tondela PPG 0.67
0-2 HIT CS5
Nacional logo Nacional PPG 0.73
Away· +9.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
42% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 25.6%
Odds: 2.84 EV: -27.3%
Draw 28.9%
Odds: 3.30 EV: -4.6%
Away 45.5%
Odds: 2.40 EV: +9.2%
Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 35.8% Odds: 1.90 -32.0%
Over 3.5 16.7% Odds: 3.25 -45.7%
BTTS 41.6% Odds: 1.67 -30.5%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-1
2nd 1-1
3rd 0-0
4th 1-0
5th 0-2

Expected Goals (xG)

Tondela
0.87
Nacional
1.26

Model Suggestion

No Bet NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%
O2.5/Under 57%
BTTS/No 47%
Score Hit 49%
ROI -4.3%
Bet Hit 50% (18 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.67), Away POOR (0.73)

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