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Tondela vs Nacional Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:30

Tondela

PPG 0.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Nacional

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-115.0%0-29.5%0-34.0%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.3%1-113.0%1-28.2%1-33.5%1-4+1.4%2 2-04.5%2-15.7%2-23.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.3%3-11.6%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.6% 35.2% 2.84 -27.3%

Draw 28.9% 30.3% 3.30 -4.6%

Away win 45.5% 41.7% 2.40 +9.2%

Over 2.5 35.8% 52.6% 1.90 -32.0%

Over 3.5 16.7% 30.8% 3.25 -45.7%

BTTS 41.6% 59.9% 1.67 -30.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob41.6%

A 46% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.0%

#2 1–1 13.0%

#3 0–0 11.9%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 0–2✓ 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tondela0.9

Nacional1.3

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.8% · O3.5 PROB 16.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TONDELA · PPG 0.67

NACIONAL · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

46%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.67), Away POOR (0.73)

Win probability 1X2

Tondela (H) 25.6%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV -27.3%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.6%

Nacional (A) 45.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tondela face Nacional in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tondela a 26% chance, the draw 29% and Nacional 46%, so Nacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Tondela and 1.3 for Nacional (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tondela are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.73 for Nacional. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Tondela vs Nacional Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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