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Feyenoord vs FC Groningen Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:30

Feyenoord

PPG 2.13 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FC Groningen

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 67% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-14.3%0-22.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.6%1-19.1%1-25.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.2%2-19.7%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.8%3-16.9%3-24.2%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-16.1%4+-23.6%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.9% 62.1% 1.61 -5.2%

Draw 20.5% 23.3% 4.30 -11.8%

Away win 20.6% 21.5% 4.65 -4.2%

Over 2.5 64.7% 67.6% 1.48 -4.2%

Over 3.5 42.7% 45.5% 2.20 -6.1%

BTTS 61.5% 66.7% 1.50 -7.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 59% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.7%

#2 1–1 9.1%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–0 7.6%

#5 3–1✓ 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Feyenoord2.1

FC Groningen1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FEYENOORD · PPG 2.13

FC GRONINGEN · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

67%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.13) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Feyenoord (H) 58.9%

ODDS 1.61 · IMPLIED 62.1% EV -5.2%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -11.8%

FC Groningen (A) 20.6%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Feyenoord face FC Groningen in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Feyenoord a 59% chance, the draw 21% and FC Groningen 21%, so Feyenoord are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Feyenoord and 1.2 for FC Groningen (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Feyenoord are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.33 for FC Groningen. This match finished 3-1.

Feyenoord vs FC Groningen Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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