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Krylya Sovetov vs Lokomotiv M. Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Regular Season - 27 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Krylya Sovetov

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Lokomotiv M.

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+24.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-16.1%0-26.2%0-34.2%0-4+3.4%1 1-04.4%1-19.0%1-29.1%1-36.2%1-4+5.0%2 2-03.3%2-16.6%2-26.7%2-34.6%2-4+3.7%3 3-01.6%3-13.3%3-23.3%3-32.2%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.7%4+-21.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.0% 24.7% 4.05 +13.4%

Draw 21.4% 27.5% 3.64 -22.1%

Away win 50.5% 51.3% 1.95 -1.5%

Over 2.5 68.1% 54.6% 1.83 +24.6%

Over 3.5 46.6% 34.5% 2.90 +35.1%

BTTS 67.1% 59.9% 1.67 +12.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 67%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob67.1%

A 50% / xG 1.5-2.0 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.1%

#2 1–1 9.0%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 2–1 6.6%

#5 1–3 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Krylya Sovetov1.5

Lokomotiv M.2.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.1% · O3.5 PROB 46.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KRYLYA SOVETOV · PPG 1.50

LOKOMOTIV M. · PPG 1.69

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

Krylya Sovetov (H) 28.0%

ODDS 4.05 · IMPLIED 24.7% EV +13.4%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.64 · IMPLIED 27.5% EV -22.1%

Lokomotiv M. (A) 50.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Krylya Sovetov face Lokomotiv M. in Russia - Premier League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Krylya Sovetov a 28% chance, the draw 21% and Lokomotiv M. 51%, so Lokomotiv M. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Krylya Sovetov and 2.0 for Lokomotiv M. (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Krylya Sovetov are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.69 for Lokomotiv M.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Krylya Sovetov vs Lokomotiv M. Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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