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Adana Demirspor vs Umraniyespor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Regular Season - 37 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:00

Adana Demirspor

PPG 0.28 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Umraniyespor

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 84.2% vs bookmaker-implied 96.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-17.2%0-211.0%0-311.3%0-4+18.6%1 1-01.6%1-14.9%1-27.6%1-37.7%1-4+12.7%2 2-00.5%2-11.7%2-22.6%2-32.6%2-4+4.4%3 3-00.1%3-10.4%3-20.6%3-30.6%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 5.3% 3.4% 29.00 +53.7%

Draw 10.5% 10.6% 9.40 -1.3%

Away win 84.2% 96.2% 1.04 -12.4%

Over 2.5 72.4% — — —

Over 3.5 51.7% 73.5% 1.36 -29.7%

BTTS 47.3% 47.6% 2.10 -0.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -9.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)3.1 BTTS prob47.3%

A 84% / xG 0.7-3.1 / O2.5 72% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 11.3%

#2 0–2 11.0%

#3 0–4 8.7%

#4 1–3✓ 7.7%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adana Demirspor0.7

Umraniyespor3.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.4% · O3.5 PROB 51.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ADANA DEMIRSPOR · PPG 0.28

UMRANIYESPOR · PPG 0.83

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: POOR form (0.83) vs Home POOR (0.28)

Win probability 1X2

Adana Demirspor (H) 5.3%

ODDS 29.00 · IMPLIED 3.4% EV +53.7%

Draw 10.5%

ODDS 9.40 · IMPLIED 10.6% EV -1.3%

Umraniyespor (A) 84.2%

ODDS 1.04 · IMPLIED 96.2% EV -12.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adana Demirspor face Umraniyespor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adana Demirspor a 5% chance, the draw 11% and Umraniyespor 84%, so Umraniyespor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Adana Demirspor and 3.1 for Umraniyespor (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adana Demirspor are averaging 0.28 points per game versus 0.83 for Umraniyespor. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +53.7%. This match finished 1-3.

Adana Demirspor vs Umraniyespor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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