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Granada vs Real Sociedad W Prediction— Spain - Primera División Femenina

Matchday 2 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 17:30

Granada

PPG 1.39 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

UPCOMING

Real Sociedad W

PPG 1.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

xG gap -0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-18.7%0-26.4%0-33.1%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.1%1-111.8%1-28.6%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.5%2-18.0%2-25.9%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.5%3-13.6%3-22.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 23.6% 4.24 +52.6%

Draw 27.6% 27.0% 3.70 +1.3%

Away win 36.4% 58.5% 1.71 -37.8%

Over 2.5 51.5% 58.1% 1.72 -11.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 37.0% 2.70 -14.7%

BTTS 53.9% — — —

Home O1.5 39.5% 31.3% 3.20 +26.4%

Away O1.5 42.2% 58.8% 1.70 -28.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob53.9%

A 36% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 1–2 8.6%

#4 0–0 5.9%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Granada1.4

Real Sociedad W1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GRANADA · PPG 1.39

REAL SOCIEDAD W · PPG 1.87

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

54%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Granada (H) 36.0%

ODDS 4.24 · IMPLIED 23.6% EV +52.6%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +1.3%

Real Sociedad W (A) 36.4%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV -37.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Granada face Real Sociedad W in Spain - Primera División Femenina on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Granada a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Real Sociedad W 36%, so Real Sociedad W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Granada and 1.5 for Real Sociedad W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Granada are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 1.87 for Real Sociedad W. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +26.4%.

Granada vs Real Sociedad W Prediction— Spain - Primera División Femenina

Match Preview & Prediction

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