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Eibar W vs Espanyol W Prediction— Spain - Primera División Femenina

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:00

Eibar W

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Espanyol W

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+22.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-17.7%0-25.3%0-32.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.3%1-111.6%1-28.0%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.3%2-18.7%2-26.1%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.2%3-14.4%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.4% 36.4% 2.75 +13.9%

Draw 23.9% 38.2% 2.62 -22.4%

Away win 34.7% 40.0% 2.50 -13.3%

Over 2.5 59.7% 40.0% 2.50 +49.3%

Over 3.5 36.6% 22.2% 4.50 +64.7%

BTTS 59.9% 48.8% 2.05 +22.8%

Home O1.5 40.1% 31.7% 3.15 +26.3%

Away O1.5 40.9% 34.1% 2.93 +19.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.9%

H 41% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 1–0✓ 8.3%

#5 2–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eibar W1.5

Espanyol W1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

EIBAR W · PPG 1.17

ESPANYOL W · PPG 1.22

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Eibar W (H) 41.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +13.9%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -22.4%

Espanyol W (A) 34.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eibar W face Espanyol W in Spain - Primera División Femenina on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eibar W a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Espanyol W 35%, so Eibar W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Eibar W and 1.4 for Espanyol W (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eibar W are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.22 for Espanyol W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +64.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Eibar W vs Espanyol W Prediction— Spain - Primera División Femenina

Match Preview & Prediction

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