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Edf Logrono W vs Athletic Club W Prediction— Spain - Primera División Femenina

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:30

Edf Logrono W

PPG 0.87 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

UPCOMING

Athletic Club W

PPG 1.61 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

xG gap -0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-18.4%0-25.9%0-32.8%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.3%1-111.8%1-28.4%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.9%2-18.3%2-25.9%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.8%3-13.9%3-22.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 34.0% 2.94 +7.3%

Draw 27.6% 28.6% 3.50 -2.0%

Away win 36.0% 46.3% 2.16 -22.2%

Over 2.5 51.7% 55.6% 1.80 -6.9%

Over 3.5 31.6% 35.1% 2.85 -9.9%

BTTS 54.2% — — —

Home O1.5 39.9% 39.2% 2.55 +1.7%

Away O1.5 42.2% 48.8% 2.05 -13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 13%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.2%

H 36% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 0–0 5.9%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Edf Logrono W1.4

Athletic Club W1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

EDF LOGRONO W · PPG 0.87

ATHLETIC CLUB W · PPG 1.61

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

54%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Edf Logrono W (H) 36.5%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV +7.3%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.0%

Athletic Club W (A) 36.0%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV -22.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Edf Logrono W face Athletic Club W in Spain - Primera División Femenina on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Edf Logrono W a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Athletic Club W 36%, so Edf Logrono W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Edf Logrono W and 1.4 for Athletic Club W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Edf Logrono W are averaging 0.87 points per game versus 1.61 for Athletic Club W. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +1.8%.

Edf Logrono W vs Athletic Club W Prediction— Spain - Primera División Femenina

Match Preview & Prediction

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