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Real Madrid W vs Eibar W Prediction— Spain - Primera División Femenina

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 18:30

Real Madrid W

PPG 2.28 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

UPCOMING

Eibar W

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

// Model verdict

BTTS 39% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 33.3% — a clear edge.

+58.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-16.7%0-23.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.0%1-111.4%1-26.5%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.6%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.8%3-15.4%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.4%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 87.7% 1.14 -47.2%

Draw 26.2% 13.3% 7.50 +57.9%

Away win 27.5% 6.7% 15.00 +187.5%

Over 2.5 51.6% 69.4% 1.44 -25.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 47.6% 2.10 -33.6%

BTTS 52.9% 33.3% 3.00 +58.7%

Home O1.5 49.9% 81.3% 1.23 -38.6%

Away O1.5 33.2% 13.2% 7.60 +152.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 13%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Madrid W1.7

Eibar W1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL MADRID W · PPG 2.28

EIBAR W · PPG 1.09

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

39%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Real Madrid W (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.14 · IMPLIED 87.7% EV -47.2%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +57.9%

Eibar W (A) 27.5%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV +187.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Madrid W face Eibar W in Spain - Primera División Femenina on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Madrid W a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Eibar W 28%, so Real Madrid W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Real Madrid W and 1.1 for Eibar W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Madrid W are averaging 2.28 points per game versus 1.09 for Eibar W. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +375.4%.

Real Madrid W vs Eibar W Prediction— Spain - Primera División Femenina

Match Preview & Prediction

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