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Real Madrid W vs Atletico Madrid W Prediction— Spain - Primera División Femenina

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:00

Real Madrid W

PPG 2.13 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Atletico Madrid W

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.1%0-25.0%0-32.4%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.9%1-111.2%1-27.9%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-18.8%2-26.3%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.3%3-14.6%3-23.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.6%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 64.5% 1.55 -34.6%

Draw 23.5% 25.3% 3.95 -4.3%

Away win 34.2% 20.0% 5.00 +71.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 38.5% 2.60 -4.6%

BTTS 60.7% 59.9% 1.67 +1.4%

Home O1.5 47.0% 64.5% 1.55 -27.2%

Away O1.5 40.9% 30.3% 3.30 +35.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.7%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–0 6.2%

#5 1–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Madrid W1.6

Atletico Madrid W1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL MADRID W · PPG 2.13

ATLETICO MADRID W · PPG 1.56

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Real Madrid W (H) 42.2%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -34.6%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -4.3%

Atletico Madrid W (A) 34.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +71.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Madrid W face Atletico Madrid W in Spain - Primera División Femenina on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Madrid W a 42% chance, the draw 24% and Atletico Madrid W 34%, so Real Madrid W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Real Madrid W and 1.4 for Atletico Madrid W (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Madrid W are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.56 for Atletico Madrid W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +58.1%. This match finished 3-2.

Real Madrid W vs Atletico Madrid W Prediction— Spain - Primera División Femenina

Match Preview & Prediction

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