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Athletic Club W vs FC Levante Badalona W Prediction— Spain - Primera División Femenina

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 10:00

Athletic Club W

PPG 1.35 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FC Levante Badalona W

PPG 1.52 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+13.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-16.5%0-24.9%0-32.5%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.0%1-110.6%1-28.0%1-34.1%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.7%2-18.7%2-26.6%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.1%3-14.7%3-23.6%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.8%4+-22.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 54.1% 1.85 -21.9%

Draw 23.4% 30.8% 3.25 -14.4%

Away win 34.4% 26.0% 3.85 +32.4%

Over 2.5 62.0% 48.8% 2.05 +27.1%

Over 3.5 38.9% 27.0% 3.70 +43.9%

BTTS 61.3% 54.1% 1.85 +13.4%

Home O1.5 48.9% 50.0% 2.00 -2.2%

Away O1.5 46.1% 29.4% 3.40 +56.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.3%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–0 5.7%

#5 1–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletic Club W1.6

FC Levante Badalona W1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 38.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETIC CLUB W · PPG 1.35

FC LEVANTE BADALONA W · PPG 1.52

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Athletic Club W (H) 42.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -21.9%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.4%

FC Levante Badalona W (A) 34.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +32.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletic Club W face FC Levante Badalona W in Spain - Primera División Femenina on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletic Club W a 42% chance, the draw 23% and FC Levante Badalona W 34%, so Athletic Club W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Athletic Club W and 1.5 for FC Levante Badalona W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletic Club W are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 1.52 for FC Levante Badalona W. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +56.7%. This match finished 3-1.

Athletic Club W vs FC Levante Badalona W Prediction— Spain - Primera División Femenina

Match Preview & Prediction

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