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Barcelona W vs Granad. Tenerife W Prediction— Spain - Primera División Femenina

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 17:00

Barcelona W

PPG 2.48 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Granad. Tenerife W

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 40.1% vs bookmaker-implied 92.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.9%0-25.3%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.8%1-111.8%1-27.9%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-18.8%2-25.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.3%3-14.4%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.1% 96.2% 1.04 -56.2%

Draw 23.6% 10.3% 9.75 +78.1%

Away win 34.3% 3.8% 26.00 +791.8%

Over 2.5 53.5% 83.3% 1.20 -35.8%

Over 3.5 33.3% 69.0% 1.45 -51.7%

BTTS 59.1% 46.5% 2.15 +27.1%

Home O1.5 40.1% 92.6% 1.08 -56.7%

Away O1.5 40.9% 14.3% 7.00 +186.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.1%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 2–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barcelona W1.5

Granad. Tenerife W1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BARCELONA W · PPG 2.48

GRANAD. TENERIFE W · PPG 1.70

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Barcelona W (H) 42.1%

ODDS 1.04 · IMPLIED 96.2% EV -56.2%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 9.75 · IMPLIED 10.3% EV +78.1%

Granad. Tenerife W (A) 34.3%

ODDS 26.00 · IMPLIED 3.8% EV +791.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barcelona W face Granad. Tenerife W in Spain - Primera División Femenina on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barcelona W a 42% chance, the draw 24% and Granad. Tenerife W 34%, so Barcelona W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Barcelona W and 1.3 for Granad. Tenerife W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barcelona W are averaging 2.48 points per game versus 1.70 for Granad. Tenerife W. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +392.6%. This match finished 5-0.

Barcelona W vs Granad. Tenerife W Prediction— Spain - Primera División Femenina

Match Preview & Prediction

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