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Aris vs Omonia Nicosia Prediction— Cyprus - 1. Division

Matchday 2 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 17:00

Aris

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

D ····

UPCOMING

Omonia Nicosia

PPG 2.01 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-18.1%0-25.4%0-32.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.0%1-111.9%1-27.9%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.6%2-18.7%2-25.8%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.2%3-14.3%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 31.3% 3.20 +29.0%

Draw 28.9% 28.6% 3.50 +0.7%

Away win 30.9% 51.3% 1.95 -39.7%

Over 2.5 50.6% 60.6% 1.65 -16.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 40.0% 2.50 -21.0%

BTTS 52.9% 64.5% 1.55 -18.0%

Home O1.5 39.9% 40.0% 2.50 -0.3%

Away O1.5 42.2% 54.6% 1.83 -22.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.9%

D 29% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 0–0 6.2%

#4 1–2 7.9%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aris1.5

Omonia Nicosia1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ARIS · PPG 1.63

OMONIA NICOSIA · PPG 2.01

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aris (H) 40.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +29.0%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +0.7%

Omonia Nicosia (A) 30.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -39.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aris face Omonia Nicosia in Cyprus - 1. Division on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aris a 40% chance, the draw 29% and Omonia Nicosia 31%, so Aris are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Aris and 1.3 for Omonia Nicosia (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aris are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 2.01 for Omonia Nicosia. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +55.9%.

Aris vs Omonia Nicosia Prediction— Cyprus - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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