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Aris vs Apollon Limassol Prediction— Cyprus - 1. Division

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 17:00

Aris

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

D ····

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Apollon Limassol

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-18.6%0-24.9%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.9%1-112.4%1-27.1%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.8%2-19.0%2-25.1%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.8%3-14.3%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 41.7% 2.40 +6.8%

Draw 26.4% 32.3% 3.10 -10.9%

Away win 29.1% 38.2% 2.62 -14.2%

Over 2.5 52.2% 57.1% 1.75 -8.6%

Over 3.5 30.9% 36.4% 2.75 -15.0%

BTTS 54.3% 63.7% 1.57 -14.8%

Home O1.5 40.1% 45.5% 2.20 -11.8%

Away O1.5 33.0% 44.4% 2.25 -25.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.3%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 10.9%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 0–0 7.5%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aris1.4

Apollon Limassol1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ARIS · PPG 1.75

APOLLON LIMASSOL · PPG 1.57

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aris (H) 44.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +6.8%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.9%

Apollon Limassol (A) 29.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aris face Apollon Limassol in Cyprus - 1. Division on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aris a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Apollon Limassol 29%, so Aris are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Aris and 1.1 for Apollon Limassol (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aris are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.57 for Apollon Limassol. This match finished 2-2.

Aris vs Apollon Limassol Prediction— Cyprus - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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