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AEL vs Anorthosis Prediction— Cyprus - 1. Division

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 16:00

AEL

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Anorthosis

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-18.5%0-24.9%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.7%1-112.4%1-27.1%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.8%2-19.0%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.8%3-14.4%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 48.8% 2.05 -8.4%

Draw 26.0% 31.3% 3.20 -10.1%

Away win 29.3% 29.4% 3.40 -0.2%

Over 2.5 53.1% 46.5% 2.15 +14.2%

Over 3.5 31.3% 25.6% 3.90 +22.1%

BTTS 54.3% 54.1% 1.85 +0.5%

Home O1.5 40.1% 45.5% 2.20 -11.8%

Away O1.5 33.0% 31.3% 3.20 +5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.3%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 2–0✓ 7.8%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AEL1.5

Anorthosis1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AEL · PPG 1.33

ANORTHOSIS · PPG 1.21

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

AEL (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -8.4%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.1%

Anorthosis (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

AEL face Anorthosis in Cyprus - 1. Division on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AEL a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Anorthosis 29%, so AEL are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for AEL and 1.2 for Anorthosis (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AEL are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.21 for Anorthosis. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +26.1%. This match finished 2-0.

AEL vs Anorthosis Prediction— Cyprus - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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