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Pafos vs Olympiakos Prediction— Cyprus - 1. Division

Matchday 2 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 16:00

Pafos

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

UPCOMING

Olympiakos

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 58% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-16.4%0-23.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.1%1-111.1%1-26.2%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.7%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.1%3-15.7%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.7%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 71.4% 1.40 -28.3%

Draw 24.4% 23.8% 4.20 +1.5%

Away win 24.4% 15.4% 6.50 +35.2%

Over 2.5 53.8% 59.9% 1.67 -10.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 38.2% 2.62 -17.0%

BTTS 53.6% 54.1% 1.85 -0.8%

Home O1.5 49.9% 65.4% 1.53 -23.6%

Away O1.5 33.2% 25.0% 4.00 +32.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.6%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pafos1.7

Olympiakos1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PAFOS · PPG 1.82

OLYMPIAKOS · PPG 1.25

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Pafos (H) 51.2%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -28.3%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +1.5%

Olympiakos (A) 24.4%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +35.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pafos face Olympiakos in Cyprus - 1. Division on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pafos a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Olympiakos 24%, so Pafos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Pafos and 1.1 for Olympiakos (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pafos are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.25 for Olympiakos. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +40.4%.

Pafos vs Olympiakos Prediction— Cyprus - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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