Today / Cyprus - 1. Division / AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nicosia

AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nicosia Prediction— Cyprus - 1. Division

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 16:00

AEK Larnaca

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Apoel Nicosia

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-18.4%0-24.8%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.7%1-112.3%1-27.1%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.8%2-19.0%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.8%3-14.4%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 54.1% 1.85 -16.9%

Draw 25.8% 32.3% 3.10 -12.0%

Away win 29.4% 25.6% 3.90 +8.8%

Over 2.5 53.3% 48.8% 2.05 +9.3%

Over 3.5 31.5% 28.6% 3.50 +10.3%

BTTS 54.3% 54.1% 1.85 +0.5%

Home O1.5 40.1% 50.0% 2.00 -19.8%

Away O1.5 33.0% 28.6% 3.50 +15.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.3%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 2–0 7.8%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AEK Larnaca1.5

Apoel Nicosia1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AEK LARNACA · PPG 1.86

APOEL NICOSIA · PPG 1.39

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

AEK Larnaca (H) 44.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -16.9%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.0%

Apoel Nicosia (A) 29.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

AEK Larnaca face Apoel Nicosia in Cyprus - 1. Division on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AEK Larnaca a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Apoel Nicosia 29%, so AEK Larnaca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for AEK Larnaca and 1.2 for Apoel Nicosia (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AEK Larnaca are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.39 for Apoel Nicosia. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +32.3%. This match finished 3-1.

AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nicosia Prediction— Cyprus - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Cyprus - 1. Division Predictions