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İstanbulspor vs Iğdır FK Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 6 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 14:00

İstanbulspor

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLDL

UPCOMING

Iğdır FK

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 57% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-18.1%0-25.7%0-32.7%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.3%1-111.7%1-28.3%1-33.9%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.0%2-18.5%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.9%3-14.1%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 33.3% 3.00 +10.1%

Draw 24.4% 31.3% 3.20 -13.2%

Away win 38.9% 45.5% 2.20 -14.4%

Over 2.5 59.6% 55.6% 1.80 +7.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 33.3% 3.00 +9.2%

BTTS 59.0% 60.6% 1.65 -2.6%

Home O1.5 39.9% 38.2% 2.62 +4.5%

Away O1.5 42.2% 50.0% 2.00 -15.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -42.9%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.0%

A 39% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 0–1 8.1%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

İstanbulspor1.4

Iğdır FK1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

İSTANBULSPOR · PPG 1.27

IĞDIR FK · PPG 1.39

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

İstanbulspor (H) 36.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +10.1%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.2%

Iğdır FK (A) 38.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

İstanbulspor face Iğdır FK in Turkey - 1. Lig on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives İstanbulspor a 37% chance, the draw 24% and Iğdır FK 39%, so Iğdır FK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for İstanbulspor and 1.4 for Iğdır FK (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, İstanbulspor are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.39 for Iğdır FK. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.2%.

İstanbulspor vs Iğdır FK Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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