Today / Turkey - 1. Lig / Esenler Erokspor vs Kayserispor
Esenler Erokspor vs Kayserispor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig
Esenler Erokspor
PPG 1.38 · HOME
Kayserispor
PPG 1.81 · AWAY
Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →
0 1 2 3 4+ 0 0-012.3% 0-110.9% 0-24.8% 0-31.4% 0-4+0.4% 1 1-014.9% 1-113.2% 1-25.8% 1-31.7% 1-4+0.5% 2 2-09.0% 2-18.0% 2-23.5% 2-31.0% 2-4+0.3% 3 3-03.7% 3-13.2% 3-21.4% 3-30.4% 3-4+0.1% 4+ 4+-01.4% 4+-11.3% 4+-20.6% 4+-30.2% 4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW
Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV
Market Model Implied Odds EV
Home win 42.7% 44.4% 2.25 -3.9%
Draw 28.8% 30.3% 3.30 -3.0%
Away win 28.5% 34.5% 2.90 -10.4%
Over 2.5 42.7% 55.6% 1.80 -23.1%
Over 3.5 20.9% 33.3% 3.00 -22.4%
BTTS 48.0% 61.7% 1.62 -22.2%
Home O1.5 33.2% 50.0% 2.00 -33.6%
Away O1.5 25.5% 40.0% 2.50 -21.8%
League track record ↗
Based on 41 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 49%
O2.5 51%
BTTS 54%
Score Hit 49%
ROI -42.9%
Bet Hit 36%
Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL
2 – 0 31% CONFIDENCE
xG (home) 1.2 xG (away) 0.9 BTTS prob 48.0%
H 43% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
#1 1–0 14.9%
#2 1–1 13.2%
#3 0–0 12.3%
#4 0–1 10.9%
#5 2–0 9.0%
Form & verdict PPG
⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v... Chance this pick lands 48% HIGH_DRAW_RISK xG gap +0.33, combined xG 2.10 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk
Win probability 1X2
Esenler Erokspor (H) 42.7%
Season statistics shots · possession · passes · corners · cards · xG + Season Statistics average per match · 5 matches · 2026 Esenler Erokspor ▾ lower is better Kayserispor
Attack
4.4 Shots outside box
4.6 26.2% Shooting accuracy
26.5% 11.8% Goals per shot on target
38.9% Defence
3.6 Shots on target faced▾
2.8 0.60 Goals conceded▾
0.60 — xG against▾ 0·1 of 5
1.88 Control
84.8% Pass accuracy
85.6% Discipline
Match Preview & Prediction Esenler Erokspor face Kayserispor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Esenler Erokspor a 43% chance, the draw 29% and Kayserispor 28%, so Esenler Erokspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Esenler Erokspor and 0.9 for Kayserispor (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Esenler Erokspor are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.81 for Kayserispor.
Matchday 6 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 14:00
