Today / Nicaragua - Primera Division / Matagalpa vs Diriangén

Matagalpa vs Diriangén Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 9 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 01:00

Matagalpa

PPG 1.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Diriangén

PPG 2.01 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 57% chance

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-111.4%0-29.8%0-35.6%0-4+3.6%1 1-06.5%1-111.3%1-29.8%1-35.6%1-4+3.6%2 2-03.3%2-15.6%2-24.8%2-32.8%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.1%3-11.9%3-21.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.0% 25.0% 4.00 -2.4%

Draw 24.6% 30.3% 3.30 -11.3%

Away win 51.4% 57.1% 1.75 -10.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 57.8% 1.73 -6.9%

Over 3.5 31.6% 34.2% 2.92 -7.7%

BTTS 52.9% 57.8% 1.73 -8.5%

Home O1.5 30.8% 32.9% 3.04 -6.4%

Away O1.5 47.9% 56.5% 1.77 -15.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -32.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob52.9%

A 51% / xG 1.0-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 0–2 9.8%

#3 1–2 9.8%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Matagalpa1.0

Diriangén1.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MATAGALPA · PPG 1.22

DIRIANGÉN · PPG 2.01

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

57%

DANGER

xG gap -0.73 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Matagalpa (H) 24.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.4%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.3%

Diriangén (A) 51.4%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Matagalpa face Diriangén in Nicaragua - Primera Division on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Matagalpa a 24% chance, the draw 25% and Diriangén 51%, so Diriangén are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Matagalpa and 1.7 for Diriangén (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Matagalpa are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 2.01 for Diriangén. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +2.4%.

Matagalpa vs Diriangén Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Nicaragua - Primera Division Predictions