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Walter Ferretti vs Managua Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 9 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 23:00

Walter Ferretti

PPG 1.45 · HOME

UPCOMING

Managua

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 58% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+14.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-17.6%0-27.8%0-35.3%0-4+4.3%1 1-04.6%1-19.5%1-29.7%1-36.6%1-4+5.4%2 2-02.9%2-15.9%2-26.0%2-34.1%2-4+3.4%3 3-01.2%3-12.4%3-22.5%3-31.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.7% 23.1% 4.33 -1.0%

Draw 20.7% 27.0% 3.70 -14.1%

Away win 56.6% 61.7% 1.62 -8.3%

Over 2.5 63.7% 55.6% 1.80 +14.7%

Over 3.5 40.3% 34.7% 2.88 +16.1%

BTTS 61.5% 57.8% 1.73 +6.4%

Home O1.5 35.6% 29.9% 3.34 +18.9%

Away O1.5 58.3% 56.5% 1.77 +3.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 32%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -32.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob61.5%

A 57% / xG 1.2-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.7%

#2 1–1 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.8%

#4 1–3 6.6%

#5 0–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Walter Ferretti1.2

Managua2.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WALTER FERRETTI · PPG 1.45

MANAGUA · PPG 2.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

58%

DANGER

xG gap -0.80 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Walter Ferretti (H) 22.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -1.0%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -14.1%

Managua (A) 56.6%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Walter Ferretti face Managua in Nicaragua - Primera Division on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Walter Ferretti a 23% chance, the draw 21% and Managua 57%, so Managua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Walter Ferretti and 2.0 for Managua (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Walter Ferretti are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 2.00 for Managua. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +18.9%.

Walter Ferretti vs Managua Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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