Today / Nicaragua - Primera Division / Matagalpa vs UNAN Managua

Matagalpa vs UNAN Managua Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 8 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 01:00

Matagalpa

PPG 1.03 · HOME

UPCOMING

UNAN Managua

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-112.4%0-27.5%0-33.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.0%1-113.2%1-28.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.9%2-17.1%2-24.3%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.1%3-12.5%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 44.4% 2.25 -19.2%

Draw 27.9% 30.3% 3.30 -4.8%

Away win 36.1% 36.4% 2.75 -0.7%

Over 2.5 44.5% 54.1% 1.85 -17.7%

Over 3.5 25.5% — — —

BTTS 49.9% — — —

Home O1.5 30.8% — — —

Away O1.5 36.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.9%

A 36% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 1–0 11.0%

#3 0–0 10.2%

#4 0–1 12.4%

#5 2–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Matagalpa1.1

UNAN Managua1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MATAGALPA · PPG 1.03

UNAN MANAGUA · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.14, combined xG 2.28 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Matagalpa (H) 35.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -19.2%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.8%

UNAN Managua (A) 36.1%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Matagalpa face UNAN Managua in Nicaragua - Primera Division on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Matagalpa a 36% chance, the draw 28% and UNAN Managua 36%, so UNAN Managua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Matagalpa and 1.2 for UNAN Managua (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Matagalpa are averaging 1.03 points per game versus 1.43 for UNAN Managua.

Matagalpa vs UNAN Managua Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Nicaragua - Primera Division Predictions