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Rostov vs Orenburg Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Regular Season - 27 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Rostov

PPG 1.08 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Orenburg

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.3% vs bookmaker-implied 48.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.4%0-19.9%0-23.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.9%1-112.2%1-23.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.6%2-17.5%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.7%3-13.1%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% 48.1% 2.08 +4.6%

Draw 30.2% 29.1% 3.44 +3.9%

Away win 19.5% 26.3% 3.80 -25.9%

Over 2.5 28.9% 47.2% 2.12 -38.7%

Over 3.5 12.0% 27.4% 3.65 -56.2%

BTTS 33.6% 54.1% 1.85 -37.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 67%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob33.6%

H 50% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.9%

#2 0–0 15.4%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 2–0 11.6%

#5 0–1✓ 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rostov1.2

Orenburg0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.9% · O3.5 PROB 12.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSTOV · PPG 1.08

ORENBURG · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.08) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Rostov (H) 50.3%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV +4.6%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 3.44 · IMPLIED 29.1% EV +3.9%

Orenburg (A) 19.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -25.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rostov face Orenburg in Russia - Premier League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rostov a 50% chance, the draw 30% and Orenburg 20%, so Rostov are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Rostov and 0.6 for Orenburg (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rostov are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 0.50 for Orenburg. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Rostov vs Orenburg Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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