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Häcken W vs Malmö FF W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

Häcken W

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

UPCOMING

Malmö FF W

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.2%0-23.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.9%1-111.0%1-25.6%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.8%3-15.9%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.9%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 61.7% 1.62 -15.9%

Draw 23.6% 26.7% 3.75 -6.9%

Away win 24.5% 23.1% 4.33 +3.6%

Over 2.5 59.6% 59.9% 1.67 -0.5%

Over 3.5 36.4% 38.2% 2.62 -4.6%

BTTS 55.9% 57.8% 1.73 -3.3%

Home O1.5 49.9% 59.5% 1.68 -16.2%

Away O1.5 31.3% 28.6% 3.50 +9.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -33.1%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.9%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 1–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Häcken W1.8

Malmö FF W1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HÄCKEN W · PPG 3.00

MALMÖ FF W · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Häcken W (H) 51.9%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -15.9%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.9%

Malmö FF W (A) 24.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Häcken W face Malmö FF W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Häcken W a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Malmö FF W 25%, so Häcken W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Häcken W and 1.0 for Malmö FF W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Häcken W are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.67 for Malmö FF W. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +9.6%.

Häcken W vs Malmö FF W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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