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Podhale Nowy Targ vs Resovia Rzeszów Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 10:00

Podhale Nowy Targ

PPG 1.76 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Resovia Rzeszów

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+13.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.2%0-23.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.0%1-110.0%1-26.2%1-32.6%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.7%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.0%3-16.2%3-23.9%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.7%4+-22.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 48.8% 2.05 +2.1%

Draw 22.0% 30.8% 3.25 -17.1%

Away win 28.2% 33.3% 3.00 -9.2%

Over 2.5 63.1% 55.6% 1.80 +13.6%

Over 3.5 39.4% 33.3% 3.00 +18.2%

BTTS 61.3% 61.7% 1.62 -0.7%

Home O1.5 54.9% 50.0% 2.00 +9.8%

Away O1.5 37.3% 38.2% 2.62 -2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.3%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–2 6.2%

#4 2–0 7.8%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Podhale Nowy Targ1.9

Resovia Rzeszów1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PODHALE NOWY TARG · PPG 1.76

RESOVIA RZESZÓW · PPG 0.92

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Podhale Nowy Targ (H) 49.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +2.1%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -17.1%

Resovia Rzeszów (A) 28.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Podhale Nowy Targ face Resovia Rzeszów in Poland - II Liga - East on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Podhale Nowy Targ a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Resovia Rzeszów 28%, so Podhale Nowy Targ are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Podhale Nowy Targ and 1.2 for Resovia Rzeszów (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Podhale Nowy Targ are averaging 1.76 points per game versus 0.92 for Resovia Rzeszów. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Podhale Nowy Targ vs Resovia Rzeszów Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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