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Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Olimpia Grudziądz Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 14:30

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Olimpia Grudziądz

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-15.8%0-23.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.1%1-110.5%1-26.8%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.5%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.5%3-15.8%3-23.7%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-14.0%4+-22.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.2% 47.6% 2.10 -0.9%

Draw 23.8% 32.3% 3.10 -15.7%

Away win 29.0% 33.3% 3.00 -7.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 59.9% 1.67 -0.3%

Over 3.5 36.6% 38.2% 2.62 -4.1%

BTTS 61.3% 65.4% 1.53 -6.2%

Home O1.5 50.1% 54.6% 1.83 -8.3%

Away O1.5 37.3% 40.0% 2.50 -6.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.3%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–2✓ 6.8%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rekord Bielsko-Biała1.8

Olimpia Grudziądz1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

REKORD BIELSKO-BIAŁA · PPG 1.90

OLIMPIA GRUDZIĄDZ · PPG 1.41

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (H) 47.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -0.9%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.7%

Olimpia Grudziądz (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rekord Bielsko-Biała face Olimpia Grudziądz in Poland - II Liga - East on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rekord Bielsko-Biała a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Olimpia Grudziądz 29%, so Rekord Bielsko-Biała are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Rekord Bielsko-Biała and 1.3 for Olimpia Grudziądz (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rekord Bielsko-Biała are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.41 for Olimpia Grudziądz. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +3.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Olimpia Grudziądz Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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