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Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 17:00

Pendikspor

PPG 1.54 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDL

UPCOMING

Ümraniyespor

PPG 0.96 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-16.7%0-23.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.8%1-111.4%1-26.0%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.7%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.3%3-15.5%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.5%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 55.6% 1.80 -10.5%

Draw 23.9% 30.3% 3.30 -12.7%

Away win 26.4% 23.1% 4.33 +8.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 47.6% 2.10 +13.0%

Over 3.5 31.7% 26.7% 3.75 +18.9%

BTTS 54.7% 52.4% 1.91 +4.5%

Home O1.5 49.9% 50.0% 2.00 -0.2%

Away O1.5 32.5% 26.7% 3.75 +21.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pendikspor1.7

Ümraniyespor1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PENDIKSPOR · PPG 1.54

ÜMRANIYESPOR · PPG 0.96

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Pendikspor (H) 49.7%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -10.5%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.7%

Ümraniyespor (A) 26.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pendikspor face Ümraniyespor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pendikspor a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Ümraniyespor 26%, so Pendikspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Pendikspor and 1.1 for Ümraniyespor (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pendikspor are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 0.96 for Ümraniyespor. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +27.4%.

Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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