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Keçiörengücü vs Sarıyer Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 17:00

Keçiörengücü

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDW

UPCOMING

Sarıyer

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+10.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.3%0-23.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.9%1-110.2%1-25.9%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.5%3-16.3%3-23.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.7%4+-22.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.6% 45.5% 2.20 +13.5%

Draw 23.4% 32.3% 3.10 -16.5%

Away win 25.0% 32.3% 3.10 -13.5%

Over 2.5 59.7% 54.1% 1.85 +10.4%

Over 3.5 36.4% 33.3% 3.00 +9.2%

BTTS 59.0% 59.9% 1.67 -1.5%

Home O1.5 55.8% 45.5% 2.20 +22.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 40.0% 2.50 -17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.0%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 1–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Keçiörengücü1.9

Sarıyer1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KEÇIÖRENGÜCÜ · PPG 1.78

SARIYER · PPG 1.41

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Keçiörengücü (H) 51.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +13.5%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -16.5%

Sarıyer (A) 25.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Keçiörengücü face Sarıyer in Turkey - 1. Lig on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Keçiörengücü a 52% chance, the draw 23% and Sarıyer 25%, so Keçiörengücü are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Keçiörengücü and 1.1 for Sarıyer (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Keçiörengücü are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.41 for Sarıyer. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +52.0%.

Keçiörengücü vs Sarıyer Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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