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Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 17:00

Fenerbahçe

PPG 2.18 · HOME

LAST 5

LWW ··

UPCOMING

Beşiktaş

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLW ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.7%0-23.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.1%1-110.4%1-26.7%1-32.8%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.6%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.6%3-15.9%3-23.8%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.1%4+-22.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 55.2% 1.81 -15.5%

Draw 23.9% 26.7% 3.75 -6.2%

Away win 29.4% 25.0% 4.00 +10.6%

Over 2.5 61.6% 58.8% 1.70 +4.7%

Over 3.5 40.2% 35.7% 2.80 +12.6%

BTTS 61.5% 60.6% 1.65 +1.5%

Home O1.5 54.8% 57.1% 1.75 -4.1%

Away O1.5 37.9% 34.5% 2.90 +9.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–2 6.7%

#4 2–0 7.5%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fenerbahçe1.8

Beşiktaş1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FENERBAHÇE · PPG 2.18

BEŞIKTAŞ · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fenerbahçe (H) 46.7%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -15.5%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.2%

Beşiktaş (A) 29.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +10.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fenerbahçe face Beşiktaş in Turkey - Süper Lig on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fenerbahçe a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Beşiktaş 29%, so Fenerbahçe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Fenerbahçe and 1.3 for Beşiktaş (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 1.36 for Beşiktaş. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.6%.

Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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