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Erzurumspor FK vs Konyaspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Erzurumspor FK

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LLD ··

UPCOMING

Konyaspor

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.1%0-24.7%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.5%1-111.4%1-27.6%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.1%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.6%3-14.8%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.8%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 43.9% 2.28 -3.1%

Draw 23.3% 29.9% 3.35 -13.2%

Away win 34.3% 33.3% 3.00 +2.9%

Over 2.5 59.6% 51.3% 1.95 +16.2%

Over 3.5 36.4% 29.4% 3.40 +23.8%

BTTS 61.2% 57.8% 1.73 +5.9%

Home O1.5 47.7% 45.5% 2.20 +4.9%

Away O1.5 42.2% 37.7% 2.65 +11.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.2%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 1–0 8.5%

#5 2–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Erzurumspor FK1.6

Konyaspor1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ERZURUMSPOR FK · PPG 1.25

KONYASPOR · PPG 0.95

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Erzurumspor FK (H) 42.5%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -3.1%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -13.2%

Konyaspor (A) 34.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Erzurumspor FK face Konyaspor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Erzurumspor FK a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Konyaspor 34%, so Erzurumspor FK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Erzurumspor FK and 1.3 for Konyaspor (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Erzurumspor FK are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.95 for Konyaspor. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.8%.

Erzurumspor FK vs Konyaspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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