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FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern München Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:30

FC Schalke 04

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

UPCOMING

Bayern München

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.9%0-23.9%0-32.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.9%1-19.3%1-27.3%1-33.8%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.6%2-18.8%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.5%3-15.6%3-24.4%3-32.3%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-14.0%4+-23.2%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.5% 8.3% 12.00 +386.0%

Draw 23.5% 12.3% 8.10 +54.2%

Away win 36.0% 86.2% 1.16 -58.2%

Over 2.5 60.7% 82.0% 1.22 -25.9%

Over 3.5 40.2% 61.7% 1.62 -34.9%

BTTS 59.4% 58.8% 1.70 +1.0%

Home O1.5 55.8% 25.0% 4.00 +123.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 85.5% 1.17 -44.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.4%

H 40% / xG 1.9-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 1–2 7.3%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 2–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Schalke 041.9

Bayern München1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FC SCHALKE 04 · PPG 1.50

BAYERN MÜNCHEN · PPG 2.25

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Schalke 04 (H) 40.5%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +386.0%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 8.10 · IMPLIED 12.3% EV +54.2%

Bayern München (A) 36.0%

ODDS 1.16 · IMPLIED 86.2% EV -58.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Schalke 04 face Bayern München in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Schalke 04 a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Bayern München 36%, so FC Schalke 04 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for FC Schalke 04 and 1.6 for Bayern München (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Schalke 04 are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.25 for Bayern München. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +396.5%.

FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern München Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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