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Žilina vs Podbrezová Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:00

Žilina

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWW

UPCOMING

Podbrezová

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.9%0-22.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-04.6%1-17.1%1-25.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.6%2-18.6%2-26.6%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.5%3-17.0%3-25.3%3-32.7%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-17.5%4+-25.8%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 53.2% 1.88 +4.2%

Draw 20.0% 27.4% 3.65 -16.2%

Away win 24.6% 28.2% 3.55 -7.6%

Over 2.5 68.4% 71.4% 1.40 -4.2%

Over 3.5 49.4% 51.3% 1.95 -3.7%

BTTS 63.5% 74.1% 1.35 -14.3%

Home O1.5 66.3% 65.4% 1.53 +1.4%

Away O1.5 47.9% 47.6% 2.10 +0.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 32.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 55% / xG 2.4-1.5 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 1–1 7.1%

#3 3–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 1–2 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Žilina2.4

Podbrezová1.5

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ŽILINA · PPG 1.59

PODBREZOVÁ · PPG 1.21

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.89 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Žilina (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV +4.2%

Draw 20.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -16.2%

Podbrezová (A) 24.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Žilina face Podbrezová in Slovakia - Super Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Žilina a 55% chance, the draw 20% and Podbrezová 25%, so Žilina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Žilina and 1.5 for Podbrezová (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Žilina are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.21 for Podbrezová. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +16.1%.

Žilina vs Podbrezová Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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