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Komárno vs Skalica Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:00

Komárno

PPG 0.84 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLD

UPCOMING

Skalica

PPG 1.03 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-17.8%0-25.1%0-32.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.1%1-111.8%1-27.7%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.8%2-18.9%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.4%3-14.5%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 53.2% 1.88 -14.6%

Draw 24.5% 28.6% 3.50 -8.6%

Away win 30.1% 27.4% 3.65 +9.9%

Over 2.5 59.6% 55.6% 1.80 +7.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 33.9% 2.95 +7.4%

BTTS 61.5% 60.6% 1.65 +1.5%

Home O1.5 39.9% 54.1% 1.85 -26.2%

Away O1.5 40.1% 34.5% 2.90 +16.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 32.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–0 9.1%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Komárno1.5

Skalica1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KOMÁRNO · PPG 0.84

SKALICA · PPG 1.03

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Komárno (H) 45.4%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -14.6%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.6%

Skalica (A) 30.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Komárno face Skalica in Slovakia - Super Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Komárno a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Skalica 30%, so Komárno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Komárno and 1.3 for Skalica (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Komárno are averaging 0.84 points per game versus 1.03 for Skalica. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +16.3%.

Komárno vs Skalica Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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