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Van Spor vs Istanbulspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Regular Season - 37 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 10:30

Van Spor

PPG 1.56 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Istanbulspor

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a clear edge.

+13.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-16.1%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.6%1-110.9%1-24.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.3%2-19.7%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.7%3-15.8%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-13.9%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.4% 52.4% 1.91 +13.5%

Draw 22.9% 29.0% 3.45 -21.0%

Away win 17.7% 29.4% 3.40 -39.8%

Over 2.5 49.6% 60.6% 1.65 -18.2%

Over 3.5 27.7% 38.5% 2.60 -28.0%

BTTS 48.2% 65.4% 1.53 -26.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -9.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.2%

H 59% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.6%

#2 2–0 11.3%

#3 1–1 10.9%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Van Spor1.8

Istanbulspor0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VAN SPOR · PPG 1.56

ISTANBULSPOR · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Van Spor (H) 59.4%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +13.5%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -21.0%

Istanbulspor (A) 17.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -39.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Van Spor face Istanbulspor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Van Spor a 59% chance, the draw 23% and Istanbulspor 18%, so Van Spor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Van Spor and 0.9 for Istanbulspor (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Van Spor are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.33 for Istanbulspor. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.5%. This match finished 1-3.

Van Spor vs Istanbulspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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