Serik Belediyes vs Hatayspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Turkey - 1. Lig Regular Season - 37 Ismail Ogan Stadium· Serik Saturday, April 25, 2026 10:30

Serik Belediyes PPG 0.89

4-2 MISS

Hatayspor PPG 0.17

Over3.5· -2.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Serik Belediyes face Hatayspor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Serik Belediyes a 75% chance, the draw 14% and Hatayspor 10%, so Serik Belediyes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Serik Belediyes and 0.9 for Hatayspor (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Serik Belediyes are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 0.17 for Hatayspor. This match finished 4-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 75.2%

Odds: 1.25 EV: -6.0%

Draw 14.5%

Odds: 5.50 EV: -20.3%

Away 10.2%

Odds: 8.40 EV: -14.3%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 71.2% Odds: 1.36 -3.2%

Over 3.5 50.3% Odds: 1.93 -2.9%

BTTS 57.0% Odds: 1.67 -4.8%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 3-0 ✘

4th 3-1 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Serik Belediyes

2.75

Hatayspor

0.94

Model SuggestionHome -6.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -6.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.89) > Away POOR (0.17)