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Serik Belediyes vs Hatayspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 37 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 10:30

Serik Belediyes

PPG 0.89 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWL

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Hatayspor

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLW

// Model verdict

Home 79% chance

Model probability 75.2% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-12.4%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.9%1-16.5%1-23.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.5%2-18.9%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.7%3-18.1%3-23.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-011.6%4+-110.9%4+-25.1%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.2% 80.0% 1.25 -6.0%

Draw 14.5% 18.2% 5.50 -20.3%

Away win 10.2% 11.9% 8.40 -14.3%

Over 2.5 71.2% 73.5% 1.36 -3.2%

Over 3.5 50.3% 51.8% 1.93 -2.9%

BTTS 57.0% 59.9% 1.67 -4.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob57.0%

H 75% / xG 2.7-0.9 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.5%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 3–0 8.7%

#4 3–1 8.1%

#5 1–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Serik Belediyes2.7

Hatayspor0.9

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.2% · O3.5 PROB 50.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SERIK BELEDIYES · PPG 0.89

HATAYSPOR · PPG 0.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

79%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.89) > Away POOR (0.17)

Win probability 1X2

Serik Belediyes (H) 75.2%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -6.0%

Draw 14.5%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -20.3%

Hatayspor (A) 10.2%

ODDS 8.40 · IMPLIED 11.9% EV -14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Serik Belediyes face Hatayspor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Serik Belediyes a 75% chance, the draw 14% and Hatayspor 10%, so Serik Belediyes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Serik Belediyes and 0.9 for Hatayspor (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Serik Belediyes are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 0.17 for Hatayspor. This match finished 4-2.

Serik Belediyes vs Hatayspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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