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M. Boleslav U19 vs Sparta P. U19 Prediction— Czech-Republic - 1. Liga U19

Regular Season - 23 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 09:00

M. Boleslav U19

PPG 1.55 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sparta P. U19

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-14.6%0-24.8%0-33.3%0-4+2.8%1 1-03.8%1-18.0%1-28.3%1-35.8%1-4+4.9%2 2-03.3%2-16.9%2-27.2%2-35.0%2-4+4.2%3 3-01.9%3-14.0%3-24.1%3-32.9%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.5%4+-22.6%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.5% 40.0% 2.50 -18.8%

Draw 21.0% 27.4% 3.65 -23.4%

Away win 46.5% 44.4% 2.25 +4.6%

Over 2.5 73.2% — — —

Over 3.5 52.8% 50.0% 2.00 +5.6%

BTTS 71.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 16.3%

Bet Hit 88%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob71.9%

A 46% / xG 1.7-2.1 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 72%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.3%

#2 1–1 8.0%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 6.9%

#5 1–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

M. Boleslav U191.7

Sparta P. U192.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.2% · O3.5 PROB 52.8%

Form & verdict PPG

M. BOLESLAV U19 · PPG 1.55

SPARTA P. U19 · PPG 1.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.55), Away GOOD (1.64)

Win probability 1X2

M. Boleslav U19 (H) 32.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -18.8%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -23.4%

Sparta P. U19 (A) 46.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

M. Boleslav U19 face Sparta P. U19 in Czech-Republic - 1. Liga U19 on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives M. Boleslav U19 a 33% chance, the draw 21% and Sparta P. U19 47%, so Sparta P. U19 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for M. Boleslav U19 and 2.1 for Sparta P. U19 (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, M. Boleslav U19 are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.64 for Sparta P. U19. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 3-0.

M. Boleslav U19 vs Sparta P. U19 Prediction— Czech-Republic - 1. Liga U19

Match Preview & Prediction

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