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Slavia III vs Písek Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL A

Group A · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 08:15

Slavia III

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLL ·

UPCOMING

Písek

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS 64% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-17.1%0-25.1%0-32.4%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.7%1-111.1%1-28.0%1-33.8%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.1%2-18.8%2-26.3%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.2%3-14.6%3-23.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.6%4+-21.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.7% 36.4% 2.75 +14.7%

Draw 23.5% 31.3% 3.20 -14.9%

Away win 34.8% 45.5% 2.20 -23.4%

Over 2.5 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Over 3.5 36.4% 39.1% 2.56 -6.8%

BTTS 61.5% 65.4% 1.53 -5.9%

Home O1.5 47.0% 44.1% 2.27 +6.7%

Away O1.5 42.2% 51.5% 1.94 -18.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.5%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–0 6.1%

#5 1–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slavia III1.6

Písek1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SLAVIA III · PPG 1.47

PÍSEK · PPG 1.47

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

64%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Slavia III (H) 41.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +14.7%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -14.9%

Písek (A) 34.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -23.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slavia III face Písek in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL A on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slavia III a 42% chance, the draw 24% and Písek 35%, so Slavia III are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Slavia III and 1.4 for Písek (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slavia III are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.47 for Písek. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +6.7%.

Slavia III vs Písek Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL A

Match Preview & Prediction

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