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Povltava FA vs Sparta Praha II Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL A

Group A · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:00

Povltava FA

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLL ·

UPCOMING

Sparta Praha II

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWD ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 67% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-17.1%0-26.2%0-33.7%0-4+2.4%1 1-05.8%1-110.2%1-29.1%1-35.4%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.2%2-17.4%2-26.6%2-33.9%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.0%3-13.6%3-23.2%3-31.9%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.8%4+-21.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.4% 20.0% 5.00 +52.0%

Draw 23.5% 21.1% 4.75 +7.0%

Away win 46.1% 70.4% 1.42 -34.5%

Over 2.5 62.5% 69.4% 1.44 -10.0%

Over 3.5 40.2% 48.3% 2.07 -16.8%

BTTS 61.5% 63.7% 1.57 -3.4%

Home O1.5 39.9% 31.1% 3.22 +28.5%

Away O1.5 47.9% 75.2% 1.33 -36.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob61.5%

A 46% / xG 1.5-1.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 0–2 6.2%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Povltava FA1.5

Sparta Praha II1.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.5% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

POVLTAVA FA · PPG 1.07

SPARTA PRAHA II · PPG 1.36

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

67%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Povltava FA (H) 30.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +52.0%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +7.0%

Sparta Praha II (A) 46.1%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -34.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Povltava FA face Sparta Praha II in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Povltava FA a 30% chance, the draw 24% and Sparta Praha II 46%, so Sparta Praha II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Povltava FA and 1.8 for Sparta Praha II (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Povltava FA are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.36 for Sparta Praha II. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +58.6%.

Povltava FA vs Sparta Praha II Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL A

Match Preview & Prediction

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