Today / Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL A / Motorlet Praha vs Aritma Praha

Motorlet Praha vs Aritma Praha Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL A

Group A · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 08:15

Motorlet Praha

PPG 1.41 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDW ·

UPCOMING

Aritma Praha

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-18.5%0-24.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.3%1-112.5%1-26.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.1%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.4%3-14.5%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 61.7% 1.62 -20.3%

Draw 26.1% 29.4% 3.40 -6.8%

Away win 24.7% 21.7% 4.60 +8.2%

Over 2.5 50.4% 54.1% 1.85 -6.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 32.9% 3.04 -7.6%

BTTS 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

Home O1.5 39.9% 59.2% 1.69 -32.6%

Away O1.5 31.6% 28.6% 3.50 +10.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 49% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 0–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Motorlet Praha1.5

Aritma Praha1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MOTORLET PRAHA · PPG 1.41

ARITMA PRAHA · PPG 1.12

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

55%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.45, combined xG 2.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Motorlet Praha (H) 49.2%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -20.3%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.8%

Aritma Praha (A) 24.7%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Motorlet Praha face Aritma Praha in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL A on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Motorlet Praha a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Aritma Praha 25%, so Motorlet Praha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Motorlet Praha and 1.0 for Aritma Praha (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Motorlet Praha are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 1.12 for Aritma Praha. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +30.6%.

Motorlet Praha vs Aritma Praha Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL A Predictions