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Loko Vltavín vs Benešov Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL A

Group A · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 08:15

Loko Vltavín

PPG 1.76 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDW ·

UPCOMING

Benešov

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-18.4%0-24.7%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.1%1-112.4%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-19.1%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.0%3-14.4%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 47.6% 2.10 -5.3%

Draw 25.5% 32.3% 3.10 -12.6%

Away win 29.4% 34.5% 2.90 -8.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 57.8% 1.73 -6.9%

Over 3.5 31.6% 36.0% 2.78 -12.2%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 39.9% 50.3% 1.99 -20.6%

Away O1.5 33.2% 40.8% 2.45 -18.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 11.1%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 2–0 8.1%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Loko Vltavín1.5

Benešov1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LOKO VLTAVÍN · PPG 1.76

BENEŠOV · PPG 1.25

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Loko Vltavín (H) 45.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -5.3%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.6%

Benešov (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Loko Vltavín face Benešov in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL A on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Loko Vltavín a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Benešov 29%, so Loko Vltavín are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Loko Vltavín and 1.1 for Benešov (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Loko Vltavín are averaging 1.76 points per game versus 1.25 for Benešov.

Loko Vltavín vs Benešov Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL A

Match Preview & Prediction

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